According to the existing information, the adjustment of aluminum tax rate in 2025 is mainly driven by international policy changes, and China's domestic policy remains stable. The following is a forecast framework based on key influencing factors:
1. Core variables and policy basis
China's tariff policy (stable)
In 2025, the import and export tariffs of aluminum products will remain at the 2024 standard: the provisional import tariff rate for unwrought aluminum and recycled aluminum raw materials will remain at 0%, and the export tariff of aluminum will not be adjusted.
The name of the commodity under the tariff number 76020000 will be changed from "recycled cast aluminum alloy raw materials" to "recycled aluminum and aluminum alloy raw materials", and the tax rate will remain unchanged.
US tariff mutation (biggest risk point)
Trump announced that from June 4, 2025, the import tariff on steel and aluminum will be increased from 25% to 50%.
A 25% tariff may be imposed on aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico, causing supply tension in North America.
EU trade policy adjustment
If the import of Rusal (accounting for 6% of EU imports) is completely banned, the global aluminum trade flow will be restructured.
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) increases export costs and indirectly affects the competitiveness of tax rates.
2. Scenario analysis of tax rate adjustment forecasts
Scenario Probability Policy trigger conditions Potential impact
Baseline scenario 60% China's policy continues, and the US tax increase is limited to North America. China's aluminum exports turn to domestic demand, and domestic aluminum prices are under pressure (17,500-20,000 yuan/ton)
Upgrade scenario 30% The US 50% tariff is implemented globally, and the EU sanctions Rusal. International aluminum prices soar (LME exceeds US$3,500/ton), and China is forced to adjust export tax rebates to hedge
Extreme scenario 10% Global trade frictions escalate, and many countries increase tariffs on aluminum products. The industrial chain is regionally divided, and the import tariffs on recycled aluminum raw materials are reduced to hedge risks
3. Sensitivity weights of key factors
Geopolitics (weight 40%)
The US trade policy shift after the election and the EU's sanctions on Russia.
Domestic policy (weight 30%)
China's support for the recycled aluminum industry (target 15 million tons in 2027).
Cost transmission (weight 20%)
Alumina price fluctuations and green power aluminum certification increase export costs.
Supply and demand balance (weight 10%)
The growth of new energy demand (aluminum for single vehicles +40%) offsets the weakness of traditional real estate.
4. Model output suggestions Monitoring indicators: US tariff implementation scope, LME Rusal warehouse receipt changes, and monthly data on China's aluminum exports.
Risk hedging: Prioritize the layout of recycled aluminum supply chain (stable tariffs + energy consumption is only 5% of original aluminum), and expand Southeast Asian processing bases to avoid trade barriers.
Note: The current model does not cover sudden resource-rich country policies (such as Guinea's bauxite export restrictions) or technical trade barriers (such as low-carbon certification standards), and new variables need to be dynamically incorporated.
