1.Price performance and spread characteristics
| Indicator | LME London Aluminum | Shanghai Aluminum | Difference Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest Price | 2442.00 USD/ton (May 30) | 13,805 RMB/ton (approx. 1930 USD) | Shanghai-London ratio: 8.19 (based on RMB-USD exchange rate) |
| Price Trend | Oscillating downward (weekly range: 2430-2497 USD) | Relatively strong | Domestic policy support vs. weak global demand |
| Spread Logic | Reflects global supply/demand and USD pricing | Driven by domestic policies and exchange rates | RMB depreciation widens the Shanghai-London spread |
2.Comparison of inventory dynamics
| Exchange | Inventory Level | Change Trend | Market Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| LME | 384,575 tons (May 23) | Declined for eight consecutive weeks, hitting a two-year low | Tight supply supports LME aluminum prices. |
| SHFE | 141,289 tons (May 23) | Declined for eight consecutive weeks, hitting a one-year low | The destocking speed was synchronized but the base was different. Note: The simultaneous decline in inventories in both markets reflects tight short-term supply and demand, but the decline in LME inventories was deeper (annual decline of 46% vs. 40% for Shanghai Aluminum). |
3.Differentiation of core influencing factors
Policies and tariffs
LME: Affected by the US plan to increase aluminum tariffs to 50% (effective in June 2025), arbitrage transactions have been active (the price difference between CME and LME copper exceeds US$1,000/ton).
Shanghai Aluminum: Domestic tariff policies are stable, and indirect exports (such as photovoltaic modules) hedge direct trade risks. Exchange rate and cost
London aluminum is denominated in US dollars, Shanghai aluminum is denominated in RMB, and the depreciation of RMB has pushed up the Shanghai-London ratio (recently 8.0-8.4);
The EU carbon border tax (CBAM) has increased the export cost of London aluminum, and Shanghai aluminum is less affected by green power aluminum certification.
Supply and demand structure
London aluminum: Weak European real estate has suppressed demand, and the risk of Rusal sanctions (accounting for 6% of EU imports) has exacerbated volatility;
Shanghai aluminum: Strong demand for new energy (CAGR of automotive aluminum is 28%-61%), hedging the downward pressure on real estate.
4. Arbitrage opportunities and risks
Strategy Trigger conditions Risk warning
Positive arbitrage Shanghai-London ratio>8.3 (import window open) US tariff escalation suppresses LME aluminum premium
Reverse arbitrage Shanghai-London ratio<8.0 (export profits appear) Unexpected accumulation of domestic inventories suppresses Shanghai aluminum
5. Key observation points in the future
Policy nodes: Implementation of 50% aluminum tariff in the United States (June 4, 2025); Inventory signal: If LME inventory falls below 350,000 tons, it may trigger a squeeze risk; Ratio fluctuations: RMB exchange rate breaking 7.2 may cause the Shanghai-London ratio to rise above 8.5
