The main downstream areas of battery foil include power batteries, energy storage (mainly lithium iron phosphate batteries), sodium batteries, etc. It is estimated that the total demand in 2025 will reach 920,000 tons, with a CAGR of 48%.
Positive current collector aluminum foil is used in ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, sodium-ion batteries, etc. Therefore, when we measure the demand for battery aluminum foil, we should distinguish between different battery systems. According to Xinchen lithium battery data, each GWh ternary battery requires 300-450 tons of battery foil, and each GWh lithium iron phosphate battery requires 400-600 tons of battery aluminum foil; in sodium-ion batteries, because both the positive and negative electrodes use aluminum foil, and the negative electrode current collector The demand for aluminum foil is higher than that of positive electrodes, so the usage is higher. Each Gwh sodium battery requires 700-1000 tons of aluminum foil.
The demand for battery foil in the power battery field is expected to reach 620,000 tons in 2025, with a CAGR of 59%. According to data from EVsales and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, my country's new energy vehicle sales in 2021 were 3.545 million units, and the power battery installed capacity was 154.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 142% compared to the previous year; overseas new energy vehicle sales in 2021 were 2.956 million units, and the power battery installed capacity was The volume was 142.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 96%. Calculated based on an aluminum foil consumption of 450 tons/GWh, the demand for battery foil in the power sector is expected to reach 620,000 tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 59%.
The demand for battery foil in the energy storage battery field is expected to reach 230,000 tons in 2025, with a CAGR of up to 42%. Electrochemical energy storage has a wide range of application scenarios in power systems, which can be divided into three major scenarios: power generation side, power transmission and distribution side, and power consumption side. Because lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of long life, fast charging, and high safety, my country's chemical energy storage is currently dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries. Based on an aluminum foil consumption of 550 tons/GWh, the annual demand for battery aluminum foil in the energy storage field is expected to be 230,000 tons in 2025, with a CAGR of up to 42%.
The commercialization of sodium-ion batteries is imminent, and the demand for battery foil will be 66,000 tons in 2025. The main advantage of sodium-ion batteries is that they are low cost and are not subject to resource constraints. As related technologies and industrial chains mature, the cost is expected to drop further. It is expected to have good application scenarios such as electric two-wheelers, low-speed electric vehicles, energy storage, start-stop, etc. Prospects.
